Now that I’ve been an investor for over 5 years, it’s probably time to accept my fate and begin sharing annual predictions, inevitably demonstrating that my crystal ball is just as broken as everyone else’s.
Here’s what I expect in 2023:
Stock Market
What: I predict the Nasdaq Composite will be down in 2023.
Why: Even though the tech index will be down ~30% this year, I don’t see the negative trends around inflation and geopolitical tensions improving at present. Until they do, I think we have more macro pain to endure.
IPOs
What: There will be less than 100 IPOs on the US Stock Market in 2023.
Why: 2022 saw less than 200 IPOs, down over 80% from 2021, which breached 1,000. Given a downward trend in the stock market, I suspect we will see an IPO year similar to 2008 or 2009.
Unemployment
What: US Unemployment will be above 4% at the end of 2023.
Why: We’re currently at 50-year lows for unemployment, 3.7%, but I expect labor demand to soften and the talent market to inflate as layoffs continue into 2023, especially in the tech sector.
Startup Funding
What: Startup funding will be down in 2023.
Why: Startup funding peaked in 2021, and although it has been trending down in 2022, the first 3 quarters still saw more than $185B deployed! I think startups should expect a lot less capital to be available in 2023.
Those are my predictions. Let me know what you think, and please share your predictions for 2023.
Happy Holidays!
